Main research and development work completed in 2010 and ready for implementation
Elaboration of automatic technology for analysis of abnormal changes of vegetation status based on satellite data
An automatic technology of revealing of abnormal changes of vegetation on the basis of unique long-term archive of satellite data for the territory of Russia was elaborated in IKI RAN. The technology was used for the analysis of forest and agricultural crop status in Russia in the conditions of an extreme drought of summer 2010. Regions with the suffered crops were revealed and the estimation of their areas for all administrative districts of Russia was conducted. The analysis of the satellite data has allowed estimating abnormal changes of forest status under the influence of drought which was observed for the first time over the last ten years for the territory of Russia.
The automatic technology of revealing of abnormal changes of vegetative cover on the basis of use of long-term time series of satellite data was developed. A vegetative index NDVI calculated using MODIS data and degree of its deviation from long-term average behavior is used as an indicator of vegetation status. Completely automated chain of the satellite data pre-processing and archiving which were created by IMI RAN, were used as a basis for the technology elaboration. The chain has allowed by creating in IKI RAN unique long-term archive of satellite data for the territory of Russia, to carry out construct of long-term "norms" of behavior of vegetation which have been used as a basis of the abnormal changes detection.
The specified technology has been used for the operative analysis of forests and agricultural crops status on the European part of Russia in the extremely dry summer of 2010. The weekly automated analysis of the information from the middle of June 2010 when the first changes of crops connected with a drought were detected, till the end of a vegetation season have been conducted. In the end of a vegetation season the estimation of the areas of the crops which have suffered from drought in all administrative districts of Russia has been done. The obtained results were used for the grain market analysis not only by experts of Russian Ministry of Agriculture, but also by analysts from the Department of agriculture of the European Commission.
Fig.1 Results of a satellite assessment of the acreage of crops (in %), which have suffered from drought 2010 for administrative districts of Russia
It is necessary to notice that the observed drought has caused not only mass destruction of agricultural crops, but also has led to abnormal changes of the forests. Executed by IKI RAN analysis of the satellite data has allowed to reveal in a number of regions of the European part of Russia forests changes, which for the first time were observed on territory of the country during regular satellite observations period.
The section inside the information system TerraNorte (http://terranorte.iki.rssi.ru/) was created for work with operatively updated information on vegetation status in various regions of Russia. Access to the section can be received through the address: http://220.127.116.11/terranorte/index.sht . Users of the system have possibility to analyze a deviation of a current status of vegetation from its average status for the last 10 seasons.
Fig.2 The zone of an abnormal forest status revealed based on satellite data as of 8/15/2010. Areas are shown in which the value of a vegetative index in the territories covered with forest has fallen below mean annual value on 10 % (pink color) and on 30 % (red color).
Discovery of a new physical mechanism of oil spill evolution (as exampled by the catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico)
Operational combined analysis of multisensor satellite and metocean data from the region of the spill in the Gulf of Mexico has shown that oil spill drift forecast, when not solely surface film but raw oil spill is concerned, should take into consideration primarily mesoscale circulation in the region, rather than wind and wave data as most models do.
Left image: Gigantic oil jet in the Gulf of Mexico. Satellite MODIS-Terra image, obtained on May, 17 2010.
This discovery was vividly demonstrated in formation and drift forecast of a gigantic oil jet that formed 17 May and drifted 300 km southeastward. Our team succeeded not only to explain the reason for the jet formation but also to reliably forecast its drift. It was shown that the jet was formed as a result of spilt oil entrainment by a strong gigantic eddy dipole of overall transverse size of 300 km. The results of satellite data analysis gave no chance for the jet to reach either western Florida or the Gulf Stream, because it had to be entrained by the cyclonic part of the eddy, disintegrated and dissipated, which was exactly what happened in reality.
Right image: The Sea Surface Temperature of the Gulf of Mexico derived from MODIS-Terra data, obtained on May 18 2010. Image presents a surface manifestation of eddy dipole and oil jet.
These results were obtained by a team of Space Research Institute scientists, O.Yu. Lavrova, M.I. Mityagina, A.Ya. Strochkov in collaboration with prof. A.G. Kostyanoy from Shirshov Institute of Oceanology. This result is published in Remote Sensing of the Earth, no.6, p. 67-72 in 2010
Main research and development work completed in 2009 and ready for implementation
Main research and development work completed in 2008 and ready for implementation